The end to Russian aggression in Ukraine is nowhere in sight with its scope increasing after sinking of Russian warship Moskva – The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
Vulnerable Finland, Sweden, and other eastern European countries!
The blunt Russian nuclear threats to Finland and Sweden over membership of NATO spread shock waves in Europe and the world. Finland has 1300 km border stretching with Russia. The longest than any other country and Sweden and Finland are adjoining countries. During World War II, Russia, seeing other countries engaged in war, invaded Finland. This war, known as Winter War, was kept limited by Finland and didn’t allow it to blow into a full-scale war by signing a treaty in 1940. It ceded with some land to Russia to maintain peace. Thereafter, Finland assumed a neutral stance officially and didn’t join NATO and preferred to stay aloof in cold war days. However, after disintegration of the USSR , Finland joined the European Union in 1995. After seeing the fate of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden are frantically trying to join NATO. Russia may not have dared to invade Ukraine, had Ukraine been admitted to NATO earlier. The countries bordering Russia’s European side are worried and nervously watching the war in Ukraine. Being vulnerable, these European countries find solace in the clout of European Union, NATO, and US. If Finland and Sweden joins NATO, this will be one of the distinguished strategic consequences of the Ukraine war, which will bring NATO even closer to Russia.
The Present Scenario
The crux of the present Ukraine war also lies with Ukraine of the 90s gravitating towards EU and NATO after gaining independence from the USSR. And, Russia was since long back, through various means and through politics struggling to keep Ukraine under its influence.
Recently, Wall Street Journal published a podcast conversation with former U.S. Secretary Robert Gates. Gerry Baker was the moderator.
Robert Gates said that the Russian invasion was Putin’s realization that Ukraine was drifting to the West steadily. In 2014, the Russian puppet government in Kiev led by Yanukovych had nothing to do with NATO. Putin offered 16 billion dollars to Yanukovych not to join EU. When Yanukovych’s government was toppled, Crimea was invaded. Ukraine was drifting to the West steadily, year by year, economically and also in terms of its security relationships, even as not being a member of NATO. Ukraine’s security forces were increasingly being trained by Europeans and Americans. They were getting equipment from the Europeans and the US.
Gates think that Putin’s determination to ensure that Ukraine remained within the Russian orbit is the root cause of this invasion and the atrocities. Gates also says that West and the US have not the same sense of realism that it realized with China while dealing with Russia. The invasion of Ukraine was a cold shower of reality that awakened the Europeans, and to lesser extent the US, to the reality of Russia as a hostile and a disruptive force disrupting peace and stability in Europe.
So the invasion really has been a wake up call that lets people know we’re dealing with a global phenomenon of authoritarianism, and that there needs to be a global strategy in terms of how to deal with it on a global basis, not just with respect to China. He said that both China and Russia have one common purpose, and that is to diminish American influence and power around the globe wherever and whenever they can.
China gets 15% of its energy from Russia. Chinese have backed Putin but are careful not to get caught up in the sanctions regime against Russia. Today, there was a news piece that says the Chinese are not signing any new oil contracts with Russia. They’re going to comply and fulfill the contracts they already have, but they’re not signing any new ones.
He also referred to Taiwan; his opinion is that China must have been astonished at the speed with which the West responded with severe economic sanctions, the unanimity of the West in applying those sanctions, and not just the West, but Japan and Australia and several Asian countries as well. He equated the Ukraine invasion with a likely scenario with Taiwan and predicted that China would not do it. The losses incurring to Russia both militarily and in economic sanction are enormous. And, now, with more and more military aid pouring in to assist the stubborn resistance Ukraine is putting up, the war may become an embarrassment with no way out to Russia. China must have summed up the situation and may not go for Taiwan.
About Nuclear and Biological warfare threats
When asked about Putin’s threat of use of weapons of mass destruction and nuclear admonitions, Gates responded that biological weapons are basically uncontrollable. You can’t limit where it goes. There is no apparent military value to the use of a tactical nuclear weapon or chemical weapons. Other than the Ukrainian forces in the East, there are no large military forces where you could have a strategic advantage gain, a strategic advantage by the use of a weapon of mass destruction. When it comes to nuclear weapons, the winds blow to the East. So, anything they set off in Eastern Ukraine is going to end up in Russia.
The war is focusing more on the East, on the Donbas, and on the Black Sea coast. To keep Ukrainians off balance and to cause more harm to Ukraine, Russians will continue their bombing and missile attacks on other parts of Ukraine while focusing more on the East and on the Black Sea coast. Gates summed up by saying that We have to keep reminding the world what Putin’s original objectives were, which was replacement of the government in Kiev, Bringing all of Ukraine under Russian control, and making sure that Ukraine’s drift towards the West was halted, and that it became more of the Slavic core of Russia, including Russia itself, Ukraine, and Belarus. Ukraine would not formally cede any part to Russia and so the fighting will continue. Helping Ukrainians are Western allies and the US.
New Weapons to Ukraine
US president Joe Biden announced new military aid worth 800 million, consisting of heavy artillery, howitzers, and drones. 72 – 155mm Howitzers with toeing vehicles, 144000 – additional artillery rounds, and more than 120 Phoenix Ghost drones to Ukraine. The new battlefield is Donbas. New York Times quoted that senior administrative officials believe that the next 4 weeks will shape the eventual outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine. These officials believe that with the right weapons and a continuation of the high morale and motivation displayed so far, Ukrainian forces may might not only stop the Russian advance but push it back. Biden also believes that now the war is in a critical window of time. The US aid to Ukraine so far is around 2 billion dollars. Other countries like Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Turkey, and Britain are also aiding Ukraine in arms supply.
Speak Softly and Carry a Large Javelin
The US president Joe Biden used the famous one liner from Theodore Roosevelt and said that the US would not disclose all the weaponry that it will be sending to Ukraine and refer the Roosevelt’s line of – Speak softly and carry a large javelin. Biden very firmly said “He (Putin) will never succeed in dominating and occupying all of Ukraine, He will not – that will not happen.
Putin may not want entire Ukraine and conquering eastern Ukraine to have a continuous belt up to Crimea, which is long annexed in 2014, might be his aim. But until that goal is achieved, he sure will continue the bombardment to deviate the Ukrainian morale.
Putin will try to distract the West by threatening Finland and Sweden, with Moldova thrown in for the West which is already guilt laden of NATO’s expansion and over Ukraine’s persistent efforts to join EU and NATO.
The Moldova connection
Moldova’s breakaway pro-Russia region of Transdniestria is constantly under watch for any escalation in tensions due to the invasion of neighboring Ukraine. Reuters reported that the Moldova foreign minister Nicu Popescu said on Tuesday that Moldova is monitoring its breakaway pro-Russian region of Transdniestria for any sign of tensions following Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine. Transdniestria is a narrow strip of land held by pro-Russian separatists that runs along the east of Moldova and comes to within about 25 miles (40 km) of the Ukrainian port of Odessa. Reuters further reports that Russian troops are stationed there, despite repeated calls by Moldovan President Maia Sandu, for them to leave.
The Transdniestria: pro-Russian separatists fought a brief war with Moldova in 1992. Moldova declared its independence in 1991 after the disintegration of USSR. Transnistria occupies a narrow strip of land between the River Dniester and the Ukrainian border. It is internationally recognized as part of Moldova but effectively controlled by Russia. This was once a part of Romania and incorporated into the USSR in 1940. In June 2018, the UN General Assembly backed a call from Britain, Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine, and seven other countries for Russia to withdraw its troops from Transdniester. Moldova has repeatedly called for Russia to remove its troops from. Transdniester, which Russia has refused, citing munitions depot in Cobasna. Any signs of tensions escalating in this region will be equated with further intrusion of the spread of invasion by Putin.
On Friday, Deputy Commander of Russia’s central military district quoted by Russian state news agencies that Russia’s full control of South Ukraine can provide access to Transnistria. This would cut off Ukraine’s coastline and would land lock it. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also warned that Russia’s attack on Ukraine is just a beginning, and Russia plans to invade other countries, too.
Back to Ukraine, Prime Ministers of Spain and Denmark met the Ukrainian President Zelensky at Kyiev and pledged to send more weapons. The Wall Street Journal reports that Ukraine asked 15 billion dollars in order to keep its economy in a functioning state.
Mariupol & Azovstal Steel Plant
On Thursday, Putin announced the liberation of the city of Mariupol after nearly two months of fighting, demanding its trapped Ukrainian defenders be sealed into their underground last stand. Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boichenko, who is not now in Mariupol, told Reuters Putin alone can decide the fate of 100,000 civilians still trapped in the city. The Ukrainian fighters have made Azovstal Steel Plant their base. The steel plant has an area of 11 sq km. The plant dates back to the 1930s. It consists of rail lines, warehouses, coal furnaces, factories, chimneys, and tunnels. The Ukrainian soldiers used its ideal guerilla settings and established a base there. It has several floors underground and so can not be bombarded. Putin wisely left it as it is and just blockaded it. He ordered his forces not to storm the factory complex after his defense minister, Sergai Shoigu, said the Russian army was still fighting thousands of Ukrainian soldiers there. On Thursday, US company Maxar Technologies showed a mass grave site just outside Mariupol containing more than 200 fresh graves.
Babi Yar
Boichenko labeled Russian actions as the “New Babi Yar” Babi Yar is a ravine in the Ukrainian capital Kiev and a site of massacres carried out by Nazi Germany’s forces during its campaign against the Soviet Union in World War 2. Nearly 34000 Ukrainian Jews were killed in the last week of September 1941.
On an accomplished note, Putin on Friday spoke to European Union Chief Charles Michel. “All servicemen of the Ukrainian armed forces, militants of the national battalions and foreign mercenaries who laid down their arms are guaranteed life, decent treatment in accordance with the international law, and the provision of quality medical care”. The EU President Charles Michel urged Putin to allow humanitarian access to the beleaguered Mariupol during Orthodox Easter.
A total of 5,133,747 Ukrainians have to leave their beloved country since the invasion and brutality of war. Ninety percent of them are women and children. Today, on Saturday,Russia attacked Odesa today with Missiles claims it destroyed a terminal where foreign arms were stored.
The US President Joe Biden has categorically termed the atrocities uncovered in Ukrainian as ‘Genocide’
“I called it genocide because it’s become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out even the idea of being Ukrainian. The evidence is mounting, “Biden told reporter in Iowa in the second week of April. “We will let the lawyers decide, internationally, whether or not it qualifies,” he concluded. “But it sure seems that way to me.”
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