The Russian invasion of Ukraine has completed one year. The unbelievable of twenty-first century happened right in front of our eyes.
Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian exiled, and thousands died. The US Gen.Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says more than 100,000 troops killed and wounded on each side.
There was irrecoverable loss of life and property. The year robbed a generation of normalcy, destroyed and displaced well settled families out of country with future uncertainty. Many Ukrainians decided to stay back and fight, and many must, owing to age and health. They were exposed to the harsh realities of war and faced warring times without food, water, and electricity. Many got wounded or were killed by rockets, missiles, bombs, or in firing.
The Outcome
The chaotic and ruthless year of Russian invasion of Ukraine culminated into revival of Cold War with an added player (US, Russia& China), unsteady – energy starved Europe, dangerous nuclear arms race, fuel & grain shortage and a changed world order.
The only, somewhat, consoling fact is that the war remains limited – geographically & between Russia and Ukraine. Recent visit of the US President Joe Biden further consolidated West, boost morale of Ukraine and neighboring countries, NATO and added to stubbornness of Russia to continue and thereby, perhaps making the political futures of both the mighty leaders safe.
Status of Russian Army
Perhaps the Russian President counted too much on his army. At the beginning of the invasion, the Kremlin assumed that it would take only weeks to overrun Ukraine and thereafter to change the guard at Kiev.
The first setback happened when the long wriggling convoy of armed vehicles and tanks failed to swallow Kiev. It was unusual that such a military convoy of a powerful nation, fifty kilometers long, equipped with modern arms, backs, and dissolves, even before reaching the capital. As the war proceeded, the fault lines in the Russian military were exposed, and the Ukrainian mix of amateurs and professionals forced them back from many strategic locations. This must have facilitated a vigorous arms supply from the till then fractioned West. Otherwise, imposing new sanctions on Russia, trade embargo, and confiscation of western properties belonging to Russian barons in the west were the measures applied to contain Russia.
Observing the weak Russian army, which is incidentally the number two powerful army in the world, President Putin has to send Wagner mercenaries to fight. Russian atmosphere of civil and military services also get stirred up. So many news of suspicious death of high ranking officials and businessmen appeared, and also, there were changes in defense ranks.
This confrontation is historic. The Russian President Vladimir Putin is obsessed with revival of not only an old order of USSR but also of the revival of very old Ukraine, which existed 200 to 300 years back.
What is going to happen?
If the Russian President really wants to change the course of time and revive the past boundaries of Russia, then the war will continue. And, if this is just a façade, then after some period, negotiations would see the end of the war with Crimea and Donbas swallowed.
Many people believe that the Russian people will bring about a transfer of power and dethrone the president. But there is hardly any opposition leader left or free to oppose politically and initiate the change.
If there is no any change in guard in the elections of 2024 and if war is continued, then what will happen? Will NATO attack Russia by making Ukraine a medium and effect a regime change? And, will that be welcomed by or accepted by Russian people? Or strengthen Putin further beyond limits? Where it would lead to and when would the war end are the burning questions along with burning Ukraine.
The Russian President Vladimir Putin has termed the invasion as special military operation and not as war. If objectives for this operation are known, then some assumptions can be made.
Peter Dickinson penned an article in www.atlanticcouncil.org that throws some light on it.
On 12 July 2021, Russian President Putin outlined the historical basis for his claims against Ukraine in a controversial new essay that has been likened in some quarters to a declaration of war.
The 5000-word article, entitled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians, “was published on July 12. In one particularly ominous passage, he openly questions the legitimacy of Ukraine’s borders and argues that much of modern-day Ukraine occupies historically Russian lands before stating matter of factly, “Russia was robbed.”
Elsewhere, he hints at a fresh annexation of Ukrainian territory, claiming, “I am becoming more and more convinced of this: Kiv simply does not need Donbas.”Putin ends his lengthy treatise by appearing to suggest that Ukrainian statehood itself ultimately depends on Moscow’s consent, declaring, “I am confident that the true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.”
Stockholm Free World Forum senior fellow Anders Aslund branded the article “a masterclass in disinformation” and “one step short of a declaration of war.” Russian newspaper Moskovsky Kosomolets claimed the essay was Putin’s “final ultimatum to Ukraine.” The kremlin continues to occupy Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and much of the industrial Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.
The original article by the Russian President is available on http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181
It is unlikely that Russia will be pressurized enough to stop this war or concede to the demands of Ukraine to give back Crimea and the occupied area. The Russian President would not agree to a cease fire. After so much material and life loss, he can not back out jeopardizing his dream of resurrection of old Ukraine and his political future. Neither can he reduce the aggression, as in that case, West and NATO become aggressive. Black Sea is the only sea route available to Russia to access the Mediterranean Sea, so Russia would not discuss Crimea and Odessa. As far as the outright defeat of Russia or total subjugation of Ukrainians is concerned, both are difficult. Even the historical references given by the Russian President in his article, the free will, and an inherent freedom urge of Ukrainians are often seen. The year marking is for the time keepers not for the players involved. But looking at the casualties on both sides and dearth of trained human resources, there will be more use of long-range weapons, air force, etc. The claims and counterclaims are inexhaustible indeed.
The year to the Russian invasion of Ukraine can not be complete without mentioning the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. His patriotism, fearless mingling with soldiers, and unassuming but resolute appearance at international meetings won't be forgotten easily.
The Reality
The Russian President wants Ukraine back in its folds regardless of changed times or to protect Russia from the increasing influence of NATO, but how can the mankind would justify death of innocent or fighting Ukrainians and Russians They lost their lives for perceptions of the history of one man and may be for the expansion of the ideologies of other group of nations; both carrying their will at the cost of human lives.
And, after so much violence and atrocities committed by Russia, uprooting the Ukrainians from their soil, it is very unlikely that their hearts will beat together again.
the-curators.org 
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