That was in 2014…!
December 17, to be exact. The Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed magnanimously to slash the gas rates for Ukraine 400 dollars to 268 dollars per thousand cubic meters. Not only that, he agreed to pay 15 billion dollars to Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych. Elections are scheduled in 2015, and the Ukrainian President was playing with popular demand to step into the European Union and, on the other hand, with an all observing coldly calculating Putin who certainly made up his mind to revive the lost international status and the geopolitical map of the disintegrated USSR.
Ukraine is not a small country. It is the second largest country in Europe. Both Russians and Ukrainians are of Slavic race. Formerly a part of the USSR that disintegrated into numerous independent sovereign nations, Ukraine declared its independence in the 90s. The USSR fragmentation spread a shock wave amongst Soviet Russia’s ruling political elites as well all-powerful bureaucratic and wings of security specialist Secret Service and different ministries with the ministry of foreign affairs. Vladimir Putin once called the USSR disintegration as the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. Cultural identity, nationalism and overall international image of Russia hit badly. The Russian think-tank became apprehensive over ever-growing, encroaching Western dominance.
The Russian invincibility started to be shattered by a self-inflicted blow of Glasnost and Perestroika- the revolutionary changes brought by President Gorbachev. It didn’t go well with many. The inflation, severe food shortages, and anarchy prevailed after the dramatic turnabout in the core values found Russia in a compromising position to the world. It was deep felt by many Russians, sowing seeds of future disapproval to the Western values,way of life, and democracy.
Ukraine was slipping out of Russian folds and responding to inviting European Union and Western beckoning. Vladimir Putin was now well settled in his presidency. In power since 1999, the ordinary Russian citizen was happy with his rule for the economic growth, timely distribution of pension, and welfare. It was his fifteenth year, and the international circle had started to receive, respect, and accept him. He was cautious but treading firmly, as seen in the year 2008 case of Georgia. The energy starved Europe was welcoming the improved relations with Russia. The Russian President has already stabilized Russia by then. The huge amount of natural gas supply to Western Europe helped a lot. Putin’s geopolitical moves were bearing fruits. Kyrgyzstan, the once US air base in 2001, denied its further use to the US. It received 2.15 billion dollars aide from Russia. The Russian President Vladimir Putin was thinking of an Eurasian Union like its European counterpart.
The economic condition of Ukraine was in bad shape, and history suggests its president somewhat with lesser integrity than post demands. He was toeing lines of both Putin and the European Union to come out of debt. Ukraine’s main trade was, of course, with Russia. But Yanukovych hated playing second fiddle to Russia. Russia stepped in immediately once Ukraine and EU ties started to grow. He was also averse to the stringent conditions of EU and IMF for economic aid and membership. His political nemesis, former Ukrainian PM Yulia Tomoshenko, was in jail, and the foremost condition of EU to release and relocate her to Germany was the one he feared the most. As a political opponent, her popularity was sure to defeat him in the approaching elections. While, the popular opinion in Ukraine was clearly in favor of westernization and EU membership.
Yulia Tymoshenko
It’s clear that the rotten competition between Europe&US and Russia costs dearly to Ukraine. It was reflected in somewhat rude fashion when EU’s Azarov cold shouldered Russia at the World Economic forum. Putin started to accuse the West of deliberately interfering in the internal matters of Ukraine. The EU-Russia summit in January 2014 at Brussels hardly lasted for 3 hours with the blunt cancellation of traditional dinner to the Russian president. It came as a shocker to EU when the Ukrainian government under Yanukovych rejected six legislations necessary to meet conditions given by the EU. The conditional approach and also the clumsy handling of Yanukovych by EU & IMF top brass resulting in alienation and agreeing to the unconditional aid of Putin cemented the fate of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian people were never in favor of Russia. They didn’t again want to submit their country to Russian control. Soon, Ukraine was abuzz with street protests,strikes with a very strong participation of middle class against Yanukovych’s decision. People’s anger was directed towards Russia, too. Yanukovych tried to stifle their voice, and soon, the protests turned into bloody street wars between people and government machinery. The old associations like the Ukrainian Insurgent Army jumped into protests, declaring it would kill police officers if harassment of people was not stopped. (Perhaps this UPA is the source in the Russian president’s further accusation of Ukrainians as neo-Nazis.This was the WW2 time Ukrainian nationalist paramilitary formation that had [collaborated with German Nazi forces – contradictory research findings so no concrete conclusion from historians] battled the Soviet army.) People unrecognized Yanukovych. Even his close aids also started to alienate from him. Soon, he was an isolated figure.
Three EU foreign ministers from France, Germany, and Poland arrived in Kiev to form a settlement with perhaps a plan of Yanukovych stepping down, Yulia Tymoshenko released and an early election. Russia also participated but refused to sign an accord cutting power of a pro- Russian Yanukovych. Though, earlier he, as a last resort to keep the power, agreed to hold an early election, it was too late. The demand of nearly 40000 protesters camped at Mydan- main square of central Kiev now demanding him to step down. And, fearing his life, Yanukovych fled!’
With pro-Russian demonstrations already going on in Ctimea, the whole eastern Ukraine sort of got re- exposed to Russian influence. Crimea was a special case for Putin.
When the treaty of accession with Crimean leaders signed, Putin’s statement reads like “After a long hard, and exhaustive journey at Sea, Crimea & Sevastopol are returning to their home harbor, to the native shores, to the home port, to Russia “
Crimea is a historic place of great importance to Russia as it was the peninsula from where the Orthodoxy Christianity came to Russia. Vladimir, the great, the grand prince of Kiev, converted to Christianity in 987 credited with Christainization of Russia. Putin cited the 10th century baptism of Prince Vladimir, whose conversion transformed ‘Rus’ into Russia. He called Kyiev ‘ The mother of Russian cities’. He said the places from the 19th century war with Britain, France, and Turks at Crimea and the Nazi siege of World War 2 as ” dear to our hearts, symbolizing Russian military glory & outstanding Valor “. Though he said that he does not intend to split Ukraine.
These past references of 2014 help us understand what exactly has happened, who said what for motives, and perhaps future events. It was a period of ‘Arab Spring’, too, where Arab countries were witnessing people’s uprising toppling autocrats and Western interference in these events. The recent tragic death of Alexei Navalny may find echo in Putin’s words of those times, ” Some Western politicians already threaten us not only with sanctions,but also, with potential for domestic problems.” He also said,” I would like to know what they’re implying – the actions of a certain fifth column of various national traitors? Or should we expect that they will worsen the social & economic situation and therefore provoke people’s discontent? “
After taking Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, on the eastern side, all experts now agree that one-fifth of Ukraine is occupied by Russia. Life is in disarray, changed completely. Savings,dwindling, business collapsing, near and dear are either lost, sick, died, fled, or migrated and to the worst, captivated by the Russian army. With the risky grain export and shortage of helping hands, agriculture is struggling. Soldiers are tired. Insufficient arms and ammunition and no relievers for soldiers. Military recruitment is becoming difficult day to day. With Putin telling emphatically that Russia will move further after taking over Avdviika, there seems to be more aggression in store. The war scenario is also changing, big tanks, military artillery, vehicles being replaced by dronecentric electronic warfare.
Recent news portrays a confused, resource – short, somewhat divided European front, non – effective sanctions against Russia, and a struggling US over funds to Ukraine. From the events and the accompanying statements made from time to time by the Russian President Vladimir Putin, either Russia will secure all the occupied Ukrainian land in a multinational deal ,and, or looking at his aspiration of recreating a Russia of the USSR time will continue the invasion, making life in Ukraine precarious.
The Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu claimed a loss of 440000 Ukrainian servicemen, which appears to be a bit exaggerated.
The US President Joe Biden is repeatedly stressing the need for urgent Ukrainian aid. Last week, the Ukrainian army had to retreat from some three villages in the eastern Donetsk region. The French president Emmanuel Macron suggested the deployment of Western ground troops in Ukraine had been ruled out by NATO.
There is a practical suggestion by Ursula Von Der Leyen to use frozen Russian assets in the West to provide aid to Ukraine. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is on tour to Saudi Arabia to further the peace efforts and prisoner of War deal. Yulia Navalny, wife of deceased Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, is in Europe after meeting the American president. She asked the European lawmakers to probe further the financial links of Russian president Putin to the West( Alexey Navalny’s funeral is on Friday).
On July 12,2021, the Russian President Vladimir Putin presented an article that perhaps helps to further follow the seeds of the Ukraine invasion. The link to that article is given below.
the-curators.org 
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