New Conflict – Russia & IS

All 4 gunmen involved in Russia Terror attack are arrested. More than 100 are dead. 133, the casualty  figure reported by CNN. The terrorists attacked when a rock concert ‘Picnic’ was going on in the Crocus City Hall, a big concert hall building in the suburban areas of Moscow with a capacity of 6000 people was targeted.

The arrests are made in Russia’s Bryansk region, where a car chase followed and arrested the four assailants for whom IS (Islamic State – Khorasan Province ISIS-K) has claimed the responsibility.  For decades, Russia has been peaceful from the terrorist attacks.

The timing of the attack is surprising as there were no signs of unrest or religious fanaticism and Muslim terrorism in Russia. The elections are just over, finishing any political differences that existed with it. Perhaps, it’s the invincibility Putin has assumed, very little or no dents in Russian economy after severe sanctions, and the uncertain fate of Ukraine war left no choice.

The Bryansk region is near the Ukrainian boundary. The Russian security agency has accused the hand of Ukraine in the attack, which Ukraine has refuted. Immediately after the attack, the IS-K group has taken the responsibility for the attack and claimed that the attackers retreated to their base safely. The US has forewarned Russia about an imminent extremist attack targeting big gatherings.
News18.com has reported arrest of 11 people along with the four gunmen, and the death toll has risen to 150. The US said that the claim by ISIS-K is credible and believes that Ukraine was not responsible for the attacks. News18.com further reports that Russian Telegram Channels, including Baza, which is close to the security services, and a lawmaker, said some of the suspects were from the central Asian nation of Tajikistan While, Tajikistan’s foreign affairs ministry said it had not received any information from Moscow about the involvement of its citizens.
For an interesting reference, the Bryansk region supported Putin’s special operation in Ukraine with as many as 66 percent. Bryansk, along with Kursk and Belgorod of the border areas near to Ukraine, were known in the 1990s as the red belt for its allegiance to communism. But the region has a population with friends and relatives residing in Ukraine.

This terrorist attack has succeeded in pulling international attention towards the IS-Khorasan Islamic militant group. The Counter Terrorism Guide says ISIS- Khorasan has killed or injured thousands of people in Afghanistan and Pakistan since its inception in 2015. The branch also has conducted attacks in Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and it seeks to conduct operations against the US and Europe. Members of militant groups form it – including Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan who pledged allegiance to ISIS, ISIS-Khorasan aspires to establish a province in ISIS’s self-proclaimed caliphate by controlling territory in ‘the Khorasan’, referring to Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan, Central Asia and Iran. According to www.icct.nl, ISKP is a collective of defectors from groups including al-Qaeda, Tehri-e-Taliban – TTP, and former Taliban fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Its leader is not known, and the former leader, Sanaullah Ghafari, was killed in 2023 by the Taliban. Khorasan is the ancient region in modern-day Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Their goal is to establish a transnational caliphate. They are at a crossroads with Taliban over territory and the implementation of sharia law by the Taliban government in Afghanistan. Along with attacks in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, it has publicly designated countries like the Netherlands and Sweden as possible targets after Quran burnings in the Netherlands and Sweden.

Times of India reported that one of the reasons ISIS-K may have targeted Russia is linked to Russian president Putin’s military interventions in the Middle East, particularly in Syria. Putin dispatched Russian troops to Syria to support the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, explicitly aiming to combat ISIS and other extremist groups. This move, intended to maintain Assad’s hold on power and assert Russian influence in the region, directly opposed ISIS’s goals and territories. Consequently, this involvement against ISIS in Syrian could have contributed to ISIS-K’s motivation to target Russia, viewing it as a direct adversary due to its actions in the Middle East. Experts suggest that IK views Russia as an oppressor of Muslims, contributing to their antagonism. Furthermore, IK ranks include militants from Central Asia, who bear their own historical grievances against Russia, thus fueling the group’s motivation to carry out such attacks on Russian soil.

Tass – the Russian state news agency clearly mentioned that the attacks were carefully preplanned ones, and the terrorists had contacts on the Ukraine side. The Russian President, in his address to Russia, said that the attackers tried to hide and then move towards the border, where the Ukrainians had prepared a window to escape into Ukraine.

The Ukrainians have denied the allegations, and it seems that it is really difficult to move from Russia to Ukraine through an area lying adjacent to the Ukrainian border where military action is going on. Considering all the Russian war preparations and road blocks, check posts, and considerable military presence, there it is an unlikely thing. Many expressed fear that Russia may utilize the unfortunate and violent event for further military preparation and aggression. President Putin clearly said that the assailants were not Russian and their routes to come into Russia. Assistance provided and escape from the scene will be carefully investigated. The use of Islamic militancy against Russia is not new. In the 80s, Russia invaded Afghanistan, and in the ensuing crisis, the US helped Islamic mujahedeen to fight Russians by providing arms and finance. Fanatic Islamists from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan wholeheartedly engaged in the battle against the Russians in Afghanistan. Pakistan has since then become a country harboring terrorism obliterating its own well-being and constantly downgrading economically. The IS-Khorasan also consists of Pakistanis , and it too originated from there itself. The Pakistani Taliban, Baloch insurgency, and different terrorist groups mushrooming  with the unstable and delicate political atmosphere makes Pakistan volatile indeed.

The Americans have considerable intelligence on the activities of different terrorist groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan.That is why they could forewarn the Russians of an imminent attack. Perhaps they have moles planted there or have a paid network of informers. Or, Pakistan striving to come into good books of the US might be the source. Armenia – Azerbaijan, Turkey, deteriorating Iran and Pakistan relations,  Iran, and the Central Asian countries dissociated from the former USSR along with Georgia may become the future conflict zone. With the Israel – Hamas conflicts in the Middle East in Gaza Strip witnessing increase in the intensity and players involved, the unabated war in Eastern Europe on Ukrainian soil and waning Western support, differences in the EU coming to fore and instability in many African countries, approaching American elections, strained relations of Iran – US, US – Russia, Israel – entire Middle East, EU – Russia,North and South Korea and with China not letting go Taiwan, the world is fast stepping back into uncertainty after surviving the pandemic.