Al-Sharaa’s New Syria

A big game changer in the West Asia.

The tall, lanky, and enigmatic Saudi Arabian youth from Damascus left home to join Iraqi resistance against the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and become untraceable to his parents and friends who assume him dead. But he was alive, fighting in Iraq soon to be caught by the US and Iraqi forces combine search operation for foreign terrorists. He was jailed and came in contact with al-Qaeda and ISIS, formed a Syrian branch, daringly breached ties with both, formed a ruthless, literally parallel government in north Syria with UN, US declared him wanted and his group-a terrorist outfit and then in a lightning strike make Syrian president al-Assad who has backing of Russia, Iran to flee the country to become president of Syria! Meet al-Sharaa, the present interim president of Syria!

 al-Sharaa was studious, quiet, brilliant, and deeply religious student. Prevailing geopolitics in the unstable Middle- East, Palestine issue and increasing bigotry and fanaticism were shaping his perspective. He left Syria to join Iraqi resistance of the US invasion and then became untraceable. His Syrian Sunni parents and friends feared he was dead.

Once in Iraq, the young man rose in the ranks of the anti US outfit but later on arrested and jailed by US and Iraqi soldiers who were searching for foreign fighters. His north Iraqi dialect saved him. He was sent to a jail, literally a ‘factory of terrorists’ – The Camp Bucca – A US detention center where foreign mercenaries and other fighters – terrorists put together.

Camp Bucca was like a radicalization center. He studied Syria’s geography and topography in particular. Al-Sharaa was detained from 2006 to 2011 in camp Bucca. With other radicals, he soon came into contact with al-Qaeda and ISIS chief Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. Until now this can be a journey of any jihadist misled fighting a worthy cause and then crippled, lost or dead. This is where Al-Sharaa differs. Upon his release, coinciding with the burgeoning Syrian revolution, al-Sharaa was dispatched by al-Baghdadi in 2011 to establish an al-Qaeda presence in Syria.

This led to the formation of al-Nusra front in 2012. Al-Baghdadi provided monetary aid, manpower and strategic guidance. This ISIS branch was started with 65000 dollars to 70000 dollars per month from the main branch to hire and train young men into the violent world of jihadists. They wanted to turn the tide of time and bring back the Sharia – the ancient law of Islam.

Al-Sharaa ran the operations with his phenomenal convincing and brain washing powers to convert the innocent young men to become suicide bombers. People praise his convincing powers but forget for what purpose these powers were used. There were more than 600 terrorist attacks in the first year itself.

Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa has come a long way indeed. But this can be a story of any Muslim boy in Middle East in those chaotic geopolitical international times. The infamous terror outfits al-Qaeda or ISIS had well run operation systems with lot of money and proper propaganda and recruitment. They ran like a well-oiled commercial corporate with branches and branch managers managing the business of you know what. The daring and talented youth were brainwashed and lured with money, power, and fame. A lethal admixture that made them blow self with bombs strapped to the body. 

Al-Nusra’s formative years saw it engaging in fierce battles with Assad’s forces and also dominance of Sharia and strict interpretation of Islamic law. This raise concerns about al-Nusra among international observers and in particular in the minority groups. Al-Nusra soon declared a terrorist outfit by UN, US, and UK. But, here al-Sharaa’s upbringing, his own interpretation of history and religion become evident and he changed course in time.

In 2013, the ISIS supremo, self-declared Caliph al-Baghdadi made a sudden and unilateral announcement. He declared the merger of Islamic State of Iraq with al-Nusra Front to form the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – ISIL, later known as ISIS. This audacious move was a direct attempt to absorb al-Nusra and establish al-Baghdadi’s absolute authority over all jihadist operations in Syria.

Al- Sharaa vehemently rejected this declaration. He defied al-Baghdadi, publicly denouncing the merger and reaffirming his group’s allegiance directly to Ayman al-Zawahiri, the then-leader of core al-Qaeda. This marked a profound and public schism between the two most powerful jihadists factions in Syria. Al-Sharaa sought to distance al-Nusra from ISIS’s increasingly brutal and indiscriminate tactics, which were alienating many local Syrians.

The split led to open warfare between al-Nusra Front and ISIS, with al-Nusra often fighting alongside other rebel groups to expel ISIS from Syrian territories. This strategic evolution marked al-Sharaa’s trajectory. In a calculated move to garner broader international support and legitimacy, he publicly disavowed al-Qaeda in 2016, reforming his group into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This shift represented a crucial pivot from transnational jihadism to a more localized, governance-focused approach within Syria.

He began to present a more moderate image, engaging in public discourse and even granting interviews, emphasizing his commitment to protect Syria’s diverse minorities and building a functional state.

The decisive turning point arrived in Dec.2024, when the HTS led coalition launched a lightning offensive that shattered the Assad regime’s long held grip on power. This swift military victory which saw Assad flee the country, catapulted al-Sharaa into the highest office.

In January, he was formally appointed the president of Syria for a transitional period, marking an astonishing transformation for a figure once designated a terrorist by the US to president of Syria to shake hands with the US president Donald Trump.

This of course not the pleasant end of the story. The real story is just beginning. With rival groups and old enemies like ISIS baying for his blood, the new president must tread the middle path with great courage and patience. Once an ISIS, al-Qaeda man now joining  arch enemy state of US and negotiating with Israel is hardly digestible for the hard-boiled fighter groups. And, the ISIS itself, which was drove out of Syria started to attack him. Israel is not happy with his proximity to Turkey, though Turkey and Saudi Arabia were instrumental in meeting him with the US president Trump and lifting sanctions which can turn the tide in a war-ravaged Syria.

Rise of al-Sharaa created a huge geopolitical shift and its effects are started to reverberate all over. It has waned the Iranian and Russian power in the region. Syria is a patchwork of different groups with different ideologies. The unexpected stance of al-Sharaa government to support minorities, freedom of expression and woman rights can turn his old friends into foes. Such a situation will provide a fertile ground for terror groups and can plunge Syria in a more severe situation. To avoid such turn, Al-Sharaa has recruited foreign fighters and other fighters into Syrian army. A move that anytime can turn the tables on him. The inclusion of Uyghurs fighters from China into Syrian army can also made China to rethink about its role in the region. Many Uyghurs are associated with Turkistan Islamic Party. ISIS will also try to revenge its expulsion from area and is already attacking Syrian forces. It may rejuvenate its presence in Syria. Syria may become a new hub for foreign mercenaries, fighters, and terrorists.  Israel though stated to be contacted several times by the new government, has attacked south Syria  when two rockets launched from Syrian land falls into its territory. Huge number of Syrians are returning back to their mainland in the hope of return of normalcy, can strain the new economy.

 India should establish good relations with the new Syrian government. Syria’s opinion in OIC   (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) countries or UN is important. Syria may become a new hub for foreign mercenaries, fighters and terrorists and a possible launch pad against India. Turkey’s anti India stand on Kashmir is evident on many occasions. Also, it supplied drones and other arms to attack India in the recent Indo Pak war over Pehelgam terror attack. Syria and Turkey are enjoying very close relations, a fact that cannot be overlooked by India.